License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports

نویسندگان

چکیده

This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze discussion all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. find that overall, while decreased over time, it was pronounced some systemically important economies during periods global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent covering advanced emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources spillovers. The higher context real, financial, external sectors. Also, countries with larger trade capital account openess lower inflation are likely discuss reports.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: IMF Working Papers

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1018-5941', '2227-8885']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513573670.001